If Biden is elected, will consumer "vibes" return to pre-pandemic levels before the midterms in 2026?
If Biden is elected, will consumer "vibes" return to pre-pandemic levels before the midterms in 2026?
4
180Ṁ50
2026
34%
chance

If Joe Biden is elected and inaugurated as US President in the 2024 elections, will the "vibe" in the US return to pre-pandemic levels? The vibe will be determined by the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index.

Resolves YES if:

  • Any three consecutive months after Joe Biden is inaugurated, the consumer sentiment index is at or above 90.

  • AND

  • At no point after Joe Biden is inaugurated the consumer sentiment index falls below 65 for more than one consecutive month.

Resolves NO if:

  • Joe Biden is inaugurated as president and the consumer sentiment index never shows three consecutive months with a score of 90 or above before the midterm elections in 2026.

  • OR

  • Joe Biden is inaugurated and the consumer sentiment index has two or more consecutive months below 65.

Resolves N/A if:

  • Joe Biden is not inaugurated president following the 2024 elections.

US Politics
2024 US Presidential Election
Joe Biden
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8mo

This market should be canceled, no?

4mo

@DavidFWatson Agreed, should resolve NA. @Pykess might be waiting for the inauguration in case there's a last minute steal?

3mo

@JonathanNankivell @Pykess

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