Will there be a unicorn founded and operated by just one person by 2030?
54
10kṀ16k2031
15%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
To prevent private market shenanigans it will have to be 2 $1bn+ valuation rounds in series, or an acquisition, IPO or direct listing at $1bn+. For public markets valuations I will take the valuation at the close of the trading day.
My discretion will be used to adjudicate how contractor use applies to the “one person” criteria. I will not bet in this market.
Inspired by Sam Altman’s latest comments here: https://x.com/andrewmichaelio/status/1752909423826067776?s=46&t=va-CTu7Has7Aq_D1_X5Thw
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will Virgin Galactic still exist in 2030?
43% chance
Will any existing generative AI unicorn go public by 2027?
75% chance
Will there be a public company with at most one human employee before 2030?
25% chance
Will my startup Retis Labs become a unicorn, over 1 billion USD market cap, before the the end of 2026?
7% chance
Will Elon Musk found another billion dollar company by 2030?
48% chance
Will a company formed after 2020 be worth > 1 Trillion by 2030?
33% chance
Will there be manifold billionaire by 2030
68% chance
Will micro-nations become the new startups by 2030?
13% chance
Will there be a new revolutionary technology by 2030?
83% chance
Singularity by 2030?
16% chance