
Will the four year Bitcoin bull / bear market cycle continue for the 2023-2026 cycle?
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Since inception, Bitcoin has had a distinct 4 year boom and bust cycle, consisting of 3 boom years (positive returns over each year) and one bust year (negative returns of the year). See below for information on the last three cycles.
For this market to evaluate to YES requires two things:
BTC needs to have a positive return for each of the three years: 2023, 2024 and 2025
BTC needs to have a negative return for the year 2026
Returns calculated with the Coinbase BTCUSD close price as of 12/31 4PM EST
2011-2014 Cycle
BOOM
2011: +1,319%
2012: +217%
2013: +5,537%
BUST
2014: -58%
2015-2018 Cycle
BOOM
2015: +34%
2016: +123%
2017: +1,414%
BUST
2018: -75%
2019-2022 Cycle
BOOM
2019: +94%
2020: +308%
2021: +57%
BUST
2022: -64%
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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