Since inception, Bitcoin has had a distinct 4 year boom and bust cycle, consisting of 3 boom years (positive returns over each year) and one bust year (negative returns of the year). See below for information on the last three cycles.

For this market to evaluate to YES requires two things:

• BTC needs to have a positive return for each of the three years: 2023, 2024 and 2025

• BTC needs to have a negative return for the year 2026

Returns calculated with the Coinbase BTCUSD close price as of 12/31 4PM EST

2011-2014 Cycle

BOOM

2011: +1,319%

2012: +217%

2013: +5,537%

BUST

2014: -58%

2015-2018 Cycle

BOOM

2015: +34%

2016: +123%

2017: +1,414%

BUST

2018: -75%

2019-2022 Cycle

BOOM

2019: +94%

2020: +308%

2021: +57%

BUST

2022: -64%