Will the four year bitcoin cycle continue?

Question

The all time high of bitcoin, and the max of the last bull market, was achieved Nov 10, 2021, at 2:24pm utc.

This seeks to ask if the cycle will continue according to a simple definition, asking if there will be a new peak be about four years after this.

Specifically, according to coinmarketcap.com will the intraday high of bitcoin between Nov 10, 2023

and November 10, 2027 (at 2:24pm utc) occur within 6 months of the four-year anniversary of the previous peak on Nov 10, 2025?

Note it is not required for this question that this peak exceeds the previous all time high.

Update 2025-12-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Within 6 months" means ±6 months (either side of the November 10, 2025 anniversary), creating a one-year window from May 10, 2025 to May 10, 2026. The cutoff times for this window are also at 2:24pm UTC. The current ATH (occurring about a month before the anniversary) counts if not surpassed.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Roughly even odds — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 59% chance (12 traders, as of Mar 2, 2026).