Can you persuade me to stop my streak below 1000?
8
333Ṁ184
Nov 21
28%
chance

This market was inspired by /bens/i-will-resolve-this-market-no-at-th

Currently I'm on a 882 day streak

Resolves No if I reach a streak of 1000, otherwise Yes.

Fine print:

  • I will engage with comments and questions to a reasonable degree, as long as things remain friendly and in good faith.

  • I will try to add important clarifications to the description if necessary.

  • This is about my current streak.

  • I'm allowed to trade in this market.

  • Resolves Yes if my streak ends before reaching 1000 for any other reason than being persuaded (this should add some uncertainty and hopefully avoid drama).

  • Resolves No if Manifold gets rid of daily streaks, but I still keep trading regulary (and would keep my streak in the counterfactual world where streaks would still exist).

  • If things get annoying (harassement, threats, etc.) I might resolve N/A.

  • If you persuade me to stop my streak, but I continue trading (out of habit, because I forget or change my mind, etc.), you obviously haven't persuaded me enough and this still resolves No when the streak reaches 1000 (in other words: this won't resolve Yes before close).

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Are you "allowed" to trade in this market? If it gets low enough and you have the power to resolve it yes with a big profit, that sounds quite persuasive.

@Fion The criteria should be pretty unambiguous, no matter whether I trade myself or not. So yeah, that's possible. I'll add it to the description.

This would also be dangerous though. I come here maybe twice a day on average, partly on habit, but mainly because I love it. If I buy Yes and then accidentally keep trading, I'm fucked.

@Primer yeah, I don't think it's that dangerous unless you leave it too late. If you forget to abstain one day, you can try again then next day. Or you can delete the app from your phone for a day, or keep your phone in an envelope with "don't go on manifold" for a day. (If you use a computer instead of a phone, you could use a browser add on or post it notes or whatever.)

@Primer of course, the mana would need to be enough to make it worth it and maybe I underestimate how much you love it!

Oh also I just remembered streak forgiveness is a thing. Maybe harder than I thought

@Fion Good idea, uninstalling the app would probably work, I wouldn't accidentally login somewhere else.

How strongly motivated are you to keep the streak?

@TheAllMemeingEye This is what I'm trying to find out. I didn't have a strong reason to keep the streak up until now, apart from "I wanted to". But "I wanted to" has carried me to 882 days.

I'd guess there were about 100-200 days where I would just open the App, get my daily streak on a random market and be done with it.

I once won hundreds of Ṁ and lost hundreds of $ because Bitcoin went down. I was happy that day.

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