Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Liberal Party of Australia forms a new coalition with one or more political parties before the next federal election, scheduled to be held on or before 20 May 2028. The formation of a coalition is defined as a formal agreement between the Liberal Party and other party or parties to contest the election together, share resources, or govern jointly. Official announcements from the Liberal Party or the collaborating party, as reported by reputable news outlets or official party communications, will serve as the basis for resolution. If no such coalition is formed by the specified date, the market will resolve to "No".

Background

Following the 2025 federal election, the longstanding coalition between the Liberal Party and the National Party was not renewed, marking the first time in 38 years that the two parties did not operate as a coalition. This decision was influenced by policy differences and disagreements over expectations of shadow cabinet solidarity. (en.wikipedia.org) As a result, the Liberal Party became the sole official opposition party, while the National Party moved to the crossbench.

Considerations

• Potential Coalition Partners: The Liberal Party may seek to form a new coalition with other political entities, including the National Party, minor parties, or independents.

• Political Landscape: The dynamics of Australian politics, including shifts in party policies, leadership changes, and electoral strategies, could influence the formation of new coalitions.

• Public Announcements: Official statements from the Liberal Party or potential coalition partners will be key indicators of any new coalition formation.

• Update 2025-05-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A reformation of the coalition between the Liberal Party and the National Party (i.e., "Lib/Nats giving it one more go") will resolve to No.