Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the single option that accurately reflects the certified outcome of the 2028 United States presidential election:

• Democrats win popular vote and EC: The Democratic nominee wins the national popular vote plurality and secures at least 270 electoral votes.

• Democrats win popular vote, Republicans win EC: The Democratic nominee wins the national popular vote plurality, but the Republican nominee secures at least 270 electoral votes.

• Republicans win popular vote and EC: The Republican nominee wins the national popular vote plurality and secures at least 270 electoral votes.

• Republicans win popular vote, Democrats win EC: The Republican nominee wins the national popular vote plurality, but the Democratic nominee secures at least 270 electoral votes.

• Other: Resolves if any non-Democratic, non-Republican ticket wins the national popular vote plurality or reaches 270 electoral votes, if there is an exact popular vote tie, or if the Electoral College results in an unresolved tie (or contingent election where neither major-party candidate secures 270 certified electoral votes).

Sources:

• Electoral College: Certified vote count finalized during the Joint Session of Congress in January 2029, documented by the National Archives.

• Popular Vote: Official certified national popular vote totals published by the Federal Election Commission (FEC). If official FEC publication is delayed past March 31, 2029, aggregate certified results reported across all 50 states and Washington, D.C. will be used.

Background

Under the U.S. presidential election system, the candidate who wins the national popular vote does not automatically win the Electoral College. Divergences between the popular vote winner and the Electoral College winner have occurred five times in U.S. history (1824, 1876, 1888, 2000, and 2016). A candidate requires 270 of 538 electoral votes to win the presidency outright.

This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.