Will the up arrow on this question be hit more times than the down arrow?

Basic

Ṁ160k

resolved Aug 11

Resolved

YES

ALL

Will the up arrow on this question be hit more times than the down arrow before market close? Counted by number of $10 bets yes (up arrow) or $10 bets no (down arrow). Bet amounts other than $10 and selling are not included in the final tally.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#Please Resolve

#Unranked

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1,000

and

3.00

25 Comments

23 Holders

12k Trades

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predictedYES

OMG it resolved!

@JoelBecker Nice to see you back at No. 1 ser 🫡
My apologies for pulling you into it.

Not sure if it was quite worth it in the end, a lot of EM (expected mana) lost to lack of funds. Tho got a nice break & funny story I suppose.
Hope your motivation to remain top dog hasn't faded ;)

Manifold admins have resolved this market YES. This is by no means a dangerous precedent.

@ManifoldMarkets why?

@stone I like Manifold's philosophy of being as hands-off as possible, but when an unresolved market is making for an inaccurate all-time leaderboard, and that has lasted a month, it makes sense to make an exception, because now the whole site is being affected.

@stone We gave Predictor plenty of time and sent multiple messages but he gave no indication that he was going to ever resolve it (hasn't used the site in over a month).

Long term we intend to be as hands off as possible. But that doesn't mean in the early stages we should neglect some of our most active users.

Will this market resolve by 8/15? https://manifold.markets/jack/will-predictor-resolve-their-curren

@Predictor we fixed it so hopefully u can resolve it now!

predictedYES

@Predictor Resolve?

predictedYES

🥺

predictedNO

Way to go NO's! We did it ya'll!

@kazoo Congrats! You got me good, enjoy your winnings! ;)

Never doing this again!

Okay, I got my mana out safely. That's the last time I try to ride this tiger.

predictedNO

Let's go!

predictedNO

#NOGANG

looking like 1,593 x yes & 1,892 x no

My count is 1984 YES to 1555 NO, did you have it backwards? #SayNOtoWhales

@ahalekelly ^^ Oh, that's just my psyops alt account ;) Anyhow, I'm just giving you incentive to write better bots :))

🤣

predictedNO

I swear Manifold is rigged to prioritize humans over bots

@ahalekelly Well your first one seemed to just buy NO exclusivley and not at particularly great prices. I could have drained your entire account! Glad to see you're making some adjustments and experimenting tho, GL :D

predictedYES

@GeorgeVii I have lost a lot of money due to whales and it is my 1st week

@Ibozz91 I saw some of your bets, I think you lost money due to poor predictions. But I believe in you. Just get used to the maniswap mechanics before placing very large bets again.

Looks like they've changed the mechanics and now if you press the down arrow while owning YES shares, it's recorded as "selling M$9 YES shares". Are you planning to count such trades, or stick with the resolution criteria as stated?

predictedYES

@MichaelWheatley Even counting "sold M$9" as an arrow press, results would be: 5962 YES to 3924 NO. So shouldn't pose an issue for this market at least.

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