Will Prince Charles be crowned King by the end of 2022?
87
691
341
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO
Prince Charles is heir to the throne of Britain since 1951 and is the oldest and longest-serving Prince of Wales in history. If by December 31, 2022, Prince Charles is crowned the first King of Britain after Elizabeth II’s reign, this market will resolve to “Yes”. If by December 31, 2022, Prince Charles is allowed to be crowned King of England but chooses to pass on the responsibility to a younger member of the royal family, this question will resolve to "No"
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bought Ṁ10 of NO

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63172425

Announced for 6th May 2023.

I think the huge volatility here is largely because of the ambiguity of the question, so created a non-ambiguous question here:

I do agree that "crowned King" is generally agreed to mean coronation, but I bet many readers were thinking of accession.

Actually, imo the problem isn't so much ambiguity as that traders are likely to be confused/misled if they don't even realize there's a difference.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

Decent chance the coronation (which is what "crowned" means) happens after 2022 IMO.

bought Ṁ250 of YES

@MattP How long after their accession did previous coronations happen?

predicted YES

@athenaciara Elizabeth's was over a year later. Not sure what the norm is before her.

Wording question: becoming king and having the coronation ceremony are different events, Elizabeth became Queen at the moment of her father's death on 6 February 1952 but her coronation wasn't until 2 June 1953. Which does this market refer to?

@EmmaCasey +1 this is a good question!

predicted YES

@EmmaCasey "crowned" = coronation IMO. That's the plain reading.