1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ818 | |
| 2 | Ṁ626 | |
| 3 | Ṁ462 | |
| 4 | Ṁ254 | |
| 5 | Ṁ80 |
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@Predict this market should resolve as YES https://techcrunch.com/2023/06/05/apple-mac-pro-apple-silicon/
Close time was advanced without notice nor reasons provided. I always bet here assuming I would be able to trade past the event. Either @Predict should compensate my losses or this must resolve N/A due to the author moving the posts.
@deagol Hey! I went by the Metaculus guide for close dates https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#closers
"If the outcome of the question will very likely or assuredly be determined at a fixed known time, then the closing time should be immediately before this time, and the resolution time just after that. (Example: a scheduled contest between competitors or the release of scheduled data)"
Why do you assume that you can bet past the event? I do not see how your trading strategy before the event would change based on this if you can trade after the event. Could you provide an example?
@Predict this is not metaculos, nor is there any mention in description of this market that you would go with their rules. I assumed I could because the close date was shown as June 18 when I made my bets, my strategy is irrelevant here but obviously there’s a chance I could adjust my bet if I’m quick enough and beat others, kind of like the real-time sports betting markets here.
@deagol Sure this is not Metaculus. But I personally think that their guideline is very reasonable for these kinds of questions (since bettors can enjoy the event without leaving value on the table and also the final market probability will reflect what the market believes before knowing the outcome).
And I understand that there is opportunity to be the fastest bettor and win Mana during/after the event but this should have no effect on prior bets(?)
Even so, I understand that it might be problematic to change anything about a question when people are already invested.
What does the community think about this? @jack @Gabrielle @CarsonGale
@Predict as for compensation, because of this unfair change I had to sell 150 of my shares, which I previously estimated should be worth at least 50%. I think being able to trade once the info is known definitely affects the prior intrinsic value of any shares bought.
@Predict thanks! I’m not saying having the close time before the event is worse, in fact I do believe it produces better, more considered predictions, which is probably good. If it had been so since the beginning I’d still bet here, just a bit less confidently.