Will the new Syrian government demand withdrawal from Golan by Israel as an official position before EOY26?
7
110Ṁ1032026
54%
chance
3
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, before December 31, 2026, the Syrian government officially demands Israel's withdrawal from the Golan Heights. An official demand is defined as a formal statement or declaration made by the Syrian government, such as a public address by the president, an official press release, or a formal communication to international bodies like the United Nations. The resolution will be based on credible reports from reputable news organizations or official government publications.
Background
The Golan Heights is a strategically significant plateau that Israel captured from Syria during the 1967 Six-Day War and unilaterally annexed in 1981—a move not recognized by most of the international community.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Syria recognize Israel by EOY 2025?
40% chance
Will Israel withdraw from the buffer zone with Syria by EOY 2025?
8% chance
🇸🇾 Syria signs Abraham Accords by the end of Trump's term?
17% chance
Will Syria recognize Israel during Trump's second term?
66% chance
Will Syria recognize Israel by EOY 2026?
62% chance
Will Turkey annex any portion of Syria by EOY2030? (even by establishing an informal gvmt?)
55% chance
Will Israel withdraw from the buffer zone with Syria by EOY 2026?
28% chance
Will the USA reopen an embassy in Syria before the end of 2025?
46% chance
Will Israel formally annex any part of Syria by the end of 2025?
16% chance
Will Egypt withdraw recognition of Israel by EOY 2026?
4% chance