Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Netanyahu serves any prison time for criminal convictions in Israeli courts. This includes convictions in any of the three corruption cases (Cases 1000, 2000, or 4000) or any other criminal charges. The market resolves NO if he is acquitted, receives a pardon, or dies before serving any prison sentence. The market resolves after all legal proceedings conclude and any appeals are exhausted, or if a presidential pardon is granted.

Resolution will be determined by official Israeli court records and statements from the Israeli government regarding sentencing and incarceration status.

Background

Netanyahu was indicted in November 2019 in cases 1000, 2000, and 4000 for charges including breach of trust, accepting bribes, and fraud. Fraud and breach of trust can carry prison sentences of up to three years, while bribery can carry up to 10 years and/or a fine. The prosecution rested in July 2024, and on 30 November 2025, Netanyahu formally asked president Isaac Herzog for a pardon regarding his trial. On 26 June 2025, United States President Donald Trump said Netanyahu's trial should be cancelled, stating that "Bibi Netanyahu's trial should be CANCELLED, IMMEDIATELY, or a Pardon given to a Great Hero."

Considerations

In November 2024, the ICC issued arrest warrants for Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant for war crimes and crimes against humanity during the Gaza war. However, this market concerns only Israeli domestic criminal proceedings, not ICC prosecution. Additionally, all 125 ICC member states are required to arrest Netanyahu and Gallant if they enter the state's territory, which may affect his ability to travel internationally regardless of the outcome of his Israeli trial.