With the US and Israel launching a war on Iran and assassinating the Supreme Leader, will Iran become more authoritarian in 2026, or will this give way to a freer regime?
If The Economist Democracy Index scores Iran lower for the year of 2026 than 2025, this market resolves YES. If it scores the same or higher, this market resolves NO.
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Note that at the time of market creation, the 2025 The Economist Democracy Index has not yet been published, though it is expected to be published soon. To be clear, this market is comparing the index covering the state of Iran in 2025 and 2026, not the index published in 2025 and 2026. This market was inspired by @cash's 2025 market which can be used for reference as to the likely 2025 score: https://manifold.markets/cash/will-iran-become-more-authoritarian-lN9AtRS9Uc
If The Economist stops publishing the Democracy Index or changes the format in such a way that the 2025 index of Iran cannot be compared to 2026, this market will substitute in the Freedom in the World score instead, where Iran was scored 11/100 for 2025, similarly resolving YES if Iran scores lower in 2026.
See also: How will Iran be classified in The Economist's 2027 Democracy Index?
1,000I've been looking at the link to the index, many regions have not fallen to authoritarianism, but are not democracies either, but I get what you're going for here using this indicator. Certainly there are places that combine horrible levels of authoritarianism with not being a democracy and with dictatorship.
Thank you indicator for generously leaving the UK at just on the side of a full rather than flawed democracy. I live here and consider us very much a mix.
The current price is confusing me. Regime change markets are currently at 30%. In case of a regime change it seems pretty unlikely it gets more authoritarian, and there also must be a significant chance that even if the regime stays, they are subdued and forced into a less authoritarian role.
@consnop I disagree, I think if the regime falls it seems likely hardliner factions like military groups seize control. If you think otherwise you can arbitrage this by betting NO on both markets I think.