🏅 Top traders

@PlasmaBallin can we resolve YES on the Sam Altman market?

@chrisjbillington Yeah, I think at this point, the Sam Altman market counts as one. Aside from the high volume, it was talked about everywhere on the main site and Discord, especially around Thanksgiving week and did feel like the "main thing" on the site at that time. Plus, it spawned a bunch of spinoff markets.

@PlasmaBallin Plus, the >90% probability here seems to be evidence that everyone else sees it that way, too.

Sam altman market

@chrisjbillington which one ?

@Odoacre The main one:

@chrisjbillington Manifold currently has more hourly active users than the peak during LK-99

yeah, I don't really get why it's so popular, but it's definitely a good candidate

@chrisjbillington I hadn't actually looked at that market until now, but maybe it will be.

@Odoacre it's popular because it fits a interest the site is overindexed (AI) while at the same time because there's so much uncertainty, the crowdsourcing wave of informations is fun

@MP you see a crowdsourcing wave of information, I see wild gossip and untethered rumors. 😜

I think Will Manifold.love reach 1000 daily active users (7d average) by Feb 14, 2024?NO‌ will be the next 'sitewide event' market

@CarsonGale Hm, problem with that is that I haven't been paying attention to Manifold Dating at all. But maybe it will be too big of an event for me to ignore it.

Why so confident? We're currently 5/6 through the year, and there have been 5 "sitewide event" markets so far, so going on base rates, this seems like 50/50.

This does seem high to me, but I feel like things are happening faster as the site grows.

@Joshua I think whatever effect that has is probably balanced out by the fact that it's harder for an event to be "sitewide" as the site grows. For example, I think "The Market" could only really have been what it was around the time it was made or earlier. Something like that probably wouldn't become a sitewide event today (even if the "unranked" topic wasn't a thing) because it would just be too hard for it to spread to the whole site.

Looking at the progression of the event markets, the first two are self-resolving, so they are about something on the smallest scale possible (themselves and nothing else). The next was about a real-world event, but nothing notable had happened in the real world yet to make that market into an event - it became an event due to the weirdness of the market itself. The first market event that was triggered pretty much purely by real-world factors was LK-99. And then the Speaker of the House market became one due to real-world factors as well, and in particular, real-world factors that were all over the news. It could just be a coincidence, but it seems like it takes more to make something a sitewide event now than it did in the past. Before, someone could make a self-resolving market for fun and have it blow up across the site - now, it takes something major happening in the real world.