Will Rootclaim do another debate on COVID origins before 2025? If so, what will the outcome be?
Basic
7
Ṁ210
Jan 1
86%
No
3%
Yes; Rootclaim wins
7%
Yes; Rootclaim loses
3%
Yes; Tie or ambiguous outcome

Rootclaim, an organization that attempts to use rigorous probabilistic analyses to answer questions for which there is significant debate or an unknown answer, claims that there is a 94% chance that COVID was a lab leak. They offer to debate anyone who disagrees with one of their claims and bet $100,000 on the outcome. Recently, they were challenged to a debate on their position on COVID origins by Peter Miller, who won the debate. See details here:

https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/practically-a-book-review-rootclaim

Despite losing the debate, Rootclaim still believes they are correct about COVID origins and says they will still go through with the challenge if another person wants to debate them: https://blog.rootclaim.com/rootclaims-covid-19-origins-debate-results/

Will someone else take up the offer? If so, will the zoonosis theory win again, or will lab leak come out on top this time?

To count as "before 2025", the official debate just needs to start before 2025.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00
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