Will Science retract the paper on Wuhan wet market COVID origins (Worobey et al. 2022) by the end of 2025?
10
1kṀ81692026
1.9%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The market resolves YES if the journal Science retracts “The Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan was the early epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic” by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 p.m. EST. Otherwise the market resolves NO.
Here is the specific paper that would need to be retracted by Science:
Errors & critique of the study:
The market creator will not trade in this market. This market will not resolve as a percentage under any circumstances.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be scientific consensus that viruses are alive by the end of 2028?
6% chance
Will the "unpublished dissertations" potentially relevant to COVID origins be made public by the end of 2025?
25% chance
Will Nod be able to publish a model of the covid outbreak in Wuhan, before 2026?
14% chance
Will a currently-published paper on autogynephilia be retracted by the end of 2028?
64% chance
Will Wikipedia endorse the lab-leak theory for origins of COVID-19 before 2030?
20% chance
Date first peer reviewed manuscript in Cell, Nature, or Science concludes SARS2 lab origin more likely than not
Will an AI-generated paper be accepted into Nature by 2025?
14% chance
Will this paper (https://arxiv.org/pdf/2410.00965) get at least 50 citations by the end of 2025?
11% chance
Will the Lancet Retract the PACE Trial before 2030
16% chance
Who will support a lab leak theory of Covid's origin, in 2030?