Will Science retract the paper on Wuhan wet market COVID origins (Worobey et al. 2022) by the end of 2025? | Manifold

Will Science retract the paper on Wuhan wet market COVID origins (Worobey et al. 2022) by the end of 2025?

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The market resolves YES if the journal Science retracts “The Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan was the early epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic” by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 p.m. EST. Otherwise the market resolves NO.

Here is the specific paper that would need to be retracted by Science:

The Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan was the early epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic | Science

Errors & critique of the study:

Erratum for the Research Article “The Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan was the early epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic” by M. Worobey et al. | Science

The market creator will not trade in this market. This market will not resolve as a percentage under any circumstances.

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From the erratum: "The authors therefore generated new versions of these three files with n = 1000 and re-ran all statistical tests in which any of the three files were used. All results remained the same as previously reported."

This is not the kind of thing they'd retract over.

1) Yes, you are correct on that point. I'm more curious if there really is a "vibe shift" happening.

2) FYI, this is a year old, but in the errata, Lisewski claims: "The statistical claims and corresponding epidemiological interpretations of lineage A and B cases in Worobey et al. are not supported by their statistical data."

3) I think this market will probably resolve NO, but I am uncertain, so I created it.

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