This option resolves based on whether the markets made by @ManifoldPolitics asking which party will win each state and district in the 2024 election correctly predict the winner on the day before the election.
More specifically, for every market that has currently been made (as of this market's creation) by @ManifoldPolitics asking "Which party will win the US Presidency in [location]?"*, Manifold's prediction will be whichever option has the highest average probability throughout November 4 (in Central Time). This market resolves based on the number of markets for which Manifold's prediction differs from the true winner.
If, miraculously, a tie occurs in either the average probability or the actual result, I'll count it as Manifold being half-right if one of the tied-by-probability options was correct or one of the tied candidates was Manifold's prediction, but I will round the number of incorrect predictions up to the nearest integer.
The market will resolve "Other" if Manifold makes more incorrect predictions than any of the options listed.
*That includes every market linked to by the interactive map on https://manifold.markets/elections, plus these five:
/ManifoldPolitics/which-party-will-win-the-us-preside-a17ba873a3c1
/ManifoldPolitics/which-party-will-win-the-us-preside-5163ceb2f4a9
/ManifoldPolitics/which-party-will-win-the-us-preside-cf2823625bd9
/ManifoldPolitics/which-party-will-win-the-us-preside-389edd65ace9
/ManifoldPolitics/which-party-will-win-the-us-preside-73dbbe3d114f
1,000
3.00@PlasmaBallin how are you going to determine this:
Manifold's prediction will be whichever option has the highest average probability throughout November 4 (in Central Time)
@MickBransfield For most states, it should be easy, because one option will be above 50% for the entire day. If there are any where it's close enough that it's not immediately obvious which option had the higher average probability, it can be calculated from the trades. I already have a code to calculate the average probability of binary markets, so I would have to modify it to work for multiple choice markets.