Will the release of any 2024 Presidential election model sway Manifold’s forecast by at least 5 percentage points?
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Resolves YES if I believe that the release of a model swayed Manifold’s election forecast by at least 5 percentage points.
I’ll be looking at several of the major election markets about who will win to make this determination, not just one. And I’ll expect the change to last for at least 24 hours.
I won’t bet in case this seems borderline and requires subjectivity.
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