Will mana officially inflate relative to the U.S. dollar in 2023?
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81
Ṁ52k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Resolves YES if, at any point this year, the price of mana (in USD) is decreased, or the amount of USD you can donate to charity with a given amount of mana is decreased. Otherwise resolves NO.

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Resolves YES if, at any point this year, the price of mana (in USD) is decreased

price of mana is reduced

bought Ṁ50 NO from 79% to 75%
predicted YES

@Eliza

Proof that the code is real.

@Eliza While technically true due to criteria, this feels like a divergence from the intent of the title

predicted NO

@Stralor I think this is technically not true. The official price of mana remains the same; there is merely a coupon applying a discount...

predicted NO

@SG GJ making an edge case for Joseph to sort out 😂

@Stralor And you're buying YES on the below market because it merely requires that "you can buy" at a lower price, which you definitely can. That's unambiguous, I hope!

/mana/will-manifold-change-mana-prices

predicted NO

@Eliza I would say that the price of mana hasn't actually changed, there's just a specific way to get a discount. It still costs the same amount if you don't use the promo code or aren't one of the first 100 buyers.

bought Ṁ4,000 NO from 42% to 6%

@PlasmaBallin Just because you let the largest No holder (who happens to wear a VERY fancy badge and has Reasons to be Insistent on his Position) hoodwink you, doesn't mean I won't convince you to resolve in my favor on a technicality on some other market in the future!

predicted NO

@Eliza 😂

SG might have a fancy badge, but here Eliza is talking about it as if he doesn't have the singular most unique and fancy badge on the site!

Not sure what the sudden spike is about, but I know not to bet against Marcus.

predicted YES

@JosephNoonan I don't either but I want to sell my position.

Does anyone wish to buy the mana value of a market sale of 114 Yes shares on 31 October at 11:00pm Manifold time from me? They are worth 65 mana for a market sale right now but I will sell them to you for just 60 mana. And you don't have to pay anything today, just make the agreement.

Does this trade based on the black market rate for Mana?

predicted NO

@MaybeNotDepends I suppose it depends on your definition of official.

@MaybeNotDepends No, that is explicitly not included by the word "official".

@JosephNoonan I'm talking about the official black market rate.

If mana does inflate, it's almost certain to be on the charity donations side, since Manifold presumably isn't going to make it cheaper to buy mana while still giving charity donations at the same rate (then you could bankrupt Manifold by making them donate arbitrarily high amounts of money to charity, if you're rich enough). But it's also very plausible that Manifold would increase the price of mana, which would count as mana deflating by the definition in this market. They may even do both at once.

Fwiw I think it's pretty likely that we'll drop the charity conversion rate at some point, to turn the charity program into a revenue-positive system for Manifold. It's not clear whether we'll do this in 2023 it after.

@Austin How about taking the cut when people buy mana, instead of when they donate it?

predicted NO

@ZicoVerona I agree, that’s a better idea. @Austin Please don’t set a precedent by decreasing the charity conversion rate. Long-term markets are already challenging to incentivize, and concerns about one’s mana being devalued only exacerbate the problem

predicted YES

@Simon74fe I'm open to that solution as well (eg charging $12 for 1k mana) though @SG doesn't like it

predicted NO

@Austin I think I'm usually on your side but sounds like I'm siding with @SG this time! (The culture of healthy debate y'all have is amazing, btw.) I've started making a list of things I think it would make sense to try before resorting to a mana/dollar depeg. It's persuasive enough to me that I intend to keep bidding this market down! Argument in a nutshell is that you can impose various fees, restrictions, and nudges to avoid having to deviate from a nominal 1:1 exchange rate for buying and donating mana.

@ZicoVerona @dreev The reason to change the charity redemption rate and not the purchase rate is that it's better to charge a fee on things that cost the platform money (ie sending charitable donations), rather than things that don't (ie intra-platform mana sinks like boosts, lootboxes, subscription plans (eventually), etc.). The latter will become a bigger deal over time.

The purchase rate also seems more symbolically important to me.

predicted YES

@SG Both options have the downside that you have already printed way more mana than any foreseeable money you could have. Another option would be to donate monthly 80% of the revenue of the past month, and split it equal to the % of mana donated that month for each charity. Or get rid of the donation concept, make people choose a charity to sponsor, and donate based on % of total mana earned on the site, for each sponsor. Those have their own problems but I just wanted to share that concern

predicted YES

@NiciusB Hm I don't think this is true? If Mira's figures are correct (I haven't audited them but they seem roughly right) then we've printed something like $300k of mana which is basically offset by our remaining Future Fund grant for charity prediction markets.

predicted YES

@Austin Oh my bad, I haven’t looked at the numbers at all, it was just an asumption

predicted YES

Mira's numbers here:

predicted YES

@Austin so based on that you have 12mm of purchases and 32mm of printing. You are also printing mana by giving uncollateralized loans, but I don't have those numbers. I'm also not seeing liquidity subsidies. Let's suppose that those are 10mm combined.

So if you want to reduce losses by 4mm you could print 8% less mana, or charge a 33% fee on mana purchases, or charge a 7% fee on donations.

I mostly favor printing less mana. If you charge a fee on donations then you're effectively printing less mana anyway. This will require fixing some technical issues that subsidies are papering over.

@Austin What about API fees? Are they hidden in some row in Mira's numbers, or not enforced? https://docs.manifold.markets/api#fees

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