Resolving YES, NBC has projected that Trump will exceed 50%:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/live-blog/iowa-election-2024-live-updates-rcna133678#rcrd31038

Trump has been holding steady at 50.9 to 51.0 percent for a while. Based on AP's numbers, now he would need less than 37% of outstanding votes to win a majority. There is only one county in the entire state where he's getting that little (and even then, he's only getting just barely less), and that county only takes up a small percentage of the outstanding vote.

This has been called by NBC

@Joshua Oh, interesting, I didn't realize they would even project something like this.

Based on my calculation from AP's current numbers, Trump needs to win about 44% of the outstanding vote to maintain his majority.

@PlasmaBallin And now it's already down to 43%

@PlasmaBallin 41%