As of today, two states, Colorado and Maine, have banned Trump from running for president, based on Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.
This market resolves YES if any other state finds that Trump is ineligible to run for president due to Section 3 of the 14th Amendment, before either of the following happens:
The state submits its electoral votes for the 2024 election.
The Supreme Court makes a ruling that either renders Trump officially ineligible to be president, bans all states from having him on the ballot, or requires all states to allow him to run.
Trump's candidacy ends through dropping out, incapacitation, or death.
If all states submit their electoral votes or a nationwide ruling is made before a third state bans Trump from running, then the market resolves NO.
In order to count for a YES resolution, a decision must be statewide, so that it would either prevent Trump from being on the presidential ballot anywhere in the state, or prevent him from being selected as the winner of the state's primary, caucus, or general election. It does not matter if the decision is restricted such that it applies only to the primary or caucus, or only to the general election, so long as it applies statewide to some part of the presidential election. It also doesn't matter if the decision is later overturned, even if it is overturned by state courts, rather than federal ones.
It doesn't matter whether the decision is made by state courts, the secretary of state, or some other body or official, as long as the body making the decision has a credible claim to having the authority to do so (i.e. they are not just some random crank trying to unilaterally do something they obviously can't, or a body that doesn't have statewide authority, etc.), even if courts later rule that they actually didn't have that authority.
Note that a Supreme Court ruling only counts for a NO resolution if it settles the issue nationwide, meaning that requires all states to allow Trump on the ballot or requires all of them to consider him ineligible. If the Supreme Court rules that it is up to the states to decide for themselves if Trump is eligible to run, then it doesn't settle the issue nationally.
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Wow, this came out of nowhere to me, though I guess someone watching closely enough would have known about this case. I checked the document that contained the court order just to make sure it was indeed banning him from the ballot statewide, which it is, though of course it will probably be overturned by SCOTUS (or possibly a state court appeal).
Hawaii bill to ban candidates for insurrection passes first hearing