I don't know when my next substack post will be made, but whenever it comes out, I'll resolve all the words and phrases that appear in the post to YES and the others to NO. You can submit any word or phrase you want.
It will count as having appeared in the post if the exact phrase is visible anywhere in the post. That would include being in the text itself, or in an image or the title of an embedded Manifold market. I would also count it if it's in alt text for an image or link or the url of a link.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ54 | |
| 2 | Ṁ4 | |
| 3 | Ṁ4 | |
| 4 | Ṁ4 |
People are also trading
I have a post that I'm planning to finish soon. I precommit to NOT manipulating this market (i.e., I won't include a phrase in my post just because it was in this market, nor will I intentionally exclude it). I also won't make any more bets, except for things that are really obvious (like the fact that the post will contain the word "The"), so you don't have to worry about insider trading.
Clues for what it will be about:
It was inspired by a market on Manifold.
It involves a paradox in probability theory.