What will Manifold's fursona be?
Basic
8
Ṁ189
resolved May 6
ResolvedN/A
41%
Crane
7%
Other bird
9%
Fox
3%
Feline
3%
Dog or wolf
4%
Other mammal
3%
Reptile or amphibian
3%
Fish
3%
Invertebrate
22%
Mythological/fictional creature

Conditional on Manifold having a fursona by the standards of this market, what type of animal will it be?

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@SirSalty I am getting the, "APIError: Negative payouts too large for resolution. Contact admin," when I try to resolve this N/A.

Should resolve to N/A?

@CollectedOverSpread I get an API error when I try to resolve it.

Argument for crane: This is the obvious choice, given that Manifold's logo is already a paper crane.

Argument for fox: Manifold is a prediction site, and "foxes" (from Isaiah Berlin's essay "The Hedgehog and the Fox") refer to people who draw from a wide variety of ideas rather than seeing the world through a single lens. There is evidence that foxes are better predictors than hedgehogs, making the fox a natural symbol for a prediction site.

Argument for feline: https://manifold.markets/JosephNoonan/will-manifold-markets-have-a-furson#VgyUeiDWydLZqyuaZkzS

@JosephNoonan Additional argument for fox - manifund already effectively has a fox fursona!