Manifold has just changed the way loans are distributed. The loan amount and the frequency at which you can receive them is the same, but now, rather than automatically getting them at midnight each day, you have to click on a loan button with the treasure chest icon in order to receive it.
This is probably the most controversial new feature Manifold has ever added. The intention is to help new users understand how the loans work and make sure they understand that loans exist in the first place. However, it has been argued that it doesn't even succeed at this purpose, and it is disliked by many experienced users as an unnecessary inconvenience that can't be disabled, despite only existing to serve as a tutorial, and because it means you don't get your loan for the day if you don't log in, or if you just forget to click it.
1,000@Conflux Oh, yeah, forgot about Maniswipe. That one was probably more controversial, except maybe in the sense of, "It's not controversial if everyone agrees it's bad."
the more i think about and use the "push button for loan" thing, the more it feels like an improvement (even if a small one) over silent automagic loans. i mean, for me personally, automatic loans were more in my own interest but, yeah. i don't know how seriously to take the extreme negativity about it from power users -- sometimes that kind of feedback is correct and sometimes it's wrong. status quo bias is real and important and i guess the relevant empirical question is how newbies feel. as they become power users, do they feel super frustrated when they miss a day of pushing that button?
anyway, before it gets too contentious, there probably does exist a best-of-both-worlds solution, so maybe we could all scout-mindset together on figuring out what that might look like. i suspect it involves loans having some small cost and giving the user more control and more transparency about how much they can borrow.
brainstorming desiderata:
silent automagic loans are bad
having an obvious dominant strategy as a user that involves busywork to implement is bad
manifold should be careful and deliberate about giving away free money
(and 0%-interest loans count as free money)
lots of transparency about your balance and amount of debt
maybe other stats like overall probability you'll end up in the hole?
from @EvanDaniel: automatic loans work well with clawing back underwater loans, which is a thing manifold should be doing
[added] settings are bad
@dreev iirc, Manifold used to show the total loans that you still have to pay back on your profile. Now, it either doesn't show it at all or shows it in such a hidden place that I can't find it anywhere. Seems like bringing this back is the obvious first step for addressing 5 and 6. I never understood why they removed it in the first place, and aside from being information that anyone, new user of experienced user, might want to know, it would also help new users understand loans.
PSA: if you are curious about the loan button and click on it just to see an explanation of how it works, it will automatically give you a loan of the maximum amount with no "confirm" button, then instead of lighting up like the streak button, it disappears. Unintuitive and if the idea is to prevent people accidentally over leveraging themselves, could use an upgrade. But still it's a step forward.
@Manifold it's only a matter of time before I send my invoice for UX/UI testing.
@ClubmasterTransparent Thanks for your service! You can click on this button to settle your invoice:
(sorry couldn't resist)
Come on people! If these "experienced users' figured out where the limit order button is buried and how to embed a market in a comment (hint: it's not the"embed" option) they ought to be able to withstand the brain strain of clicking a button at the top of the front page that says "Loan" right on it.
Further evidence of the power of Taylor Swift outside the music industry!
Does this mean that the several (AFAIK it's two) experienced users who were so overleveraged they recently received bailouts did not, in fact, understand how leverage works?
I'm delighted to see rapid response and more transparency and yes I do think it will help retention.
Repeating my thoughts from the Discord here:
i suspect there's some status quo bias here. or i guess entitlement. i mean, there didn't use to be loans at all. getting them in a limited way when you prove you want them seems ... still supererogatory. automatic daily loans feels excessively generous to me.
(no new user who never knew the old status quo would begrudge this, right? it's just "push this, get loaned mana, yay")
if you're in the tiny set of power users who care strongly about maxing out how much you borrow, write a script, that seems fine too. it sounds like in the future loans will be done in a more principled (haha) way where they're not trickled out but you can borrow based on how much of a credit risk you are, more like in the normal financial system.
ps, i also think it's kinda weird/gross/bad that there's a 0% interest rate on loans. on the flip side, i think manifold should pay interest on people's uninvested balances. i guess in general, i think manifold should emulate traditional finance more. soooo much hard-won wisdom there.
there didn't use to be loans at all. getting them in a limited way when you prove you want them seems ... still supererogatory.
I can't make sense of this. Loans are still good overall, and therefore what? The question was whether the change made to loans is good, not whether loans themselves are good.
@PlasmaBallin I guess it's just that free 0%-interest loans are generous and expensive for Manifold. Giving them out only when users explicitly ask for them seems eminently fair and reasonable.
More thoughts from the Discord, after @Austin brought up a Joel Spolsky article about UI design:
clicking a button and getting loaned mana is a simple cause-and-effect a user can model in their head. having one's balance magically increase over time is... less so.
(separately it makes sense to me as a means to induce users to keep checking manifold to see how their bets are faring and what else they might want to bet on. it's like a streak bonus but less costly to manifold.)
@dreev This is terrible logic! If the actual goal is to limit loans tie them into streaks or something. Don't add two completely wasted button clicks to my daily workflow.