Is this market specific to US politics? If so, can this be added to the description (and title)?

@FlorisvanDoorn It's not specifically about the U.S., since it's based on Scott Alexander's market which isn't specifically about the U.S., either (at least not according to the description). But it is likely heavily weighted towards the U.S. since it's based on vibes and most Manifold users are from the U.S.

@PlasmaBallin If Scott clarifies that his market is about US politics, will this market follow suit?

I think his market is very likely intended to be about US politics, as described in my comment on that market: https://manifold.markets/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-ai-be-at-least-as-big#MjsSMOsoN1PuZqyxMAqu

@FlorisvanDoorn Yeah, I guess if SA specifically clarifies something like that, I'll make the same clarification in the poll.

Is the poll on Manifold? If so, even if we held the poll now this would probably resolve YES, just because of the particular demographics/interests on this site.

@FlorisvanDoorn The poll will be done on Manifold. I'm not so sure it will resolve YES, though. Even if people on Manifold think AI is super important, they might not perceive it as being a big political issue, since that would be more about the messaging that political figures are giving about it.

@PlasmaBallin For most Europeans (and other non-US Americans?) abortion is also a political non-issue...

@FlorisvanDoorn Let's test my hypothesis. I might be completely wrong.

@FlorisvanDoorn ok, I was mostly wrong. Still I think there will be a bias.

@FlorisvanDoorn I think your reasoning is partially right, it's just that most Manifold users are from the U.S. where abortion is definitely a bigger political issue than AI. Though I guess the fact that an overwhelming majority of people on your poll said No probably means that there are some non-U.S. users who also said No.