Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if Rob Sand officially launches a campaign for President of the United States or files paperwork to run for president before January 1, 2040. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
For the purpose of this market:
An official campaign launch consists of either:
Filing a Statement of Candidacy (FEC Form 2) for the office of President of the United States with the Federal Election Commission (FEC), or
Publicly and unambiguously declaring a candidacy in a general or primary presidential election via a formal campaign announcement.
Forming an exploratory committee alone will not suffice unless he formally declares his candidacy or meets the FEC qualification threshold for a presidential candidate.
An informal draft effort, write-in campaign organized without his consent, or public speculation will not trigger a YES resolution.
If Sand passes away or permanently retires from public life prior to declaring a presidential campaign before January 1, 2040, this market resolves to NO.
Background
Rob Sand is an American attorney and Democratic politician from Iowa. He served as an assistant Iowa attorney general from 2010 to 2017, where he prosecuted high-profile public corruption cases, including the Hot Lotto fraud scandal. In 2018, Sand was elected Iowa State Auditor, becoming the first Democrat elected to the office in over five decades. He won re-election in 2022 as the sole statewide Democrat to win office in Iowa that year, gaining national attention as an example of Democratic appeal in rural and purple Midwest areas.
Sand is running for governor of Iowa in the 2026 midterm election cycle and has led in most polls.
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