This market resolves YES if Joe Rogan formally becomes a candidate for president of the United States at any point between market creation and December 31, 2036, whether as a Republican, Democrat, independent, third-party candidate, or write-in candidate.

It resolves NO if Rogan does not become a presidential candidate by that deadline.

Resolution criteria:

A qualifying candidacy requires at least one of the following:

• Rogan publicly and unambiguously announces that he is running for president and takes a concrete step toward organizing a campaign.

• Rogan files a Statement of Candidacy (FEC Form 2) with the Federal Election Commission identifying himself as a presidential candidate.

• Rogan qualifies for a presidential primary or general-election ballot with his authorization.

• Rogan launches an authorized presidential campaign organization that publicly identifies him as its candidate.

An exploratory committee alone does not count unless followed by a qualifying candidacy.

Jokes, hypothetical remarks, expressions of interest, third-party efforts to draft Rogan, unauthorized ballot listings, and public speculation do not count.

He does not need to win a nomination, appear on a general-election ballot, receive votes, or remain in the race for any minimum period. A genuine campaign that is subsequently abandoned still counts.

Resolution details:

The market resolves YES as soon as a qualifying candidacy is reliably documented, using official filings, campaign announcements, or credible contemporaneous reporting.

If no qualifying candidacy occurs by 11:59 p.m. Eastern Time on December 31, 2036, the market resolves NO.

If Rogan dies before qualifying as a candidate, the market resolves NO.

Background:

Joe Rogan is a comedian, UFC commentator, and host of The Joe Rogan Experience, one of the most widely followed podcasts in the United States.

He endorsed Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election and regularly interviews politicians and discusses American politics, but has not announced plans to seek the presidency.

In October 2026, Spotify renewed its multiyear agreement with Rogan, extending his substantial involvement in the media business.

Rogan's national recognition, audience, and influence make a potential political candidacy an interesting subject for long-term forecasting. Whether he will ever seek elected office remains an open question.