Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if Benjamin Netanyahu is convicted or found guilty of at least one criminal charge of bribery, fraud, or breach of trust in the ongoing proceedings known as Case 1000, Case 2000, or Case 4000. The market resolves YES even if the Supreme Court of Israel overturns the conviction(s) on appeal.

This includes:

• A verdict of guilty handed down by the Jerusalem District Court (or any Israeli district court trying the case) on any count of bribery, fraud, or breach of trust.

• A plea agreement in which Netanyahu enters a guilty or no-contest plea to any count of bribery, fraud, or breach of trust that is formally accepted by the court.
  

This market resolves to NO if:

• Netanyahu is acquitted or pardoned of all charges across all three cases, or all charges across all three cases are permanently dismissed or dropped without a finding or plea of guilt.

• Netanyahu passes away before any verdict is delivered.

The market remains open indefinitely until a judicial verdict is reached. The close date will be extended if necessary.

Resolution will be verified via official announcements from the Israeli Judicial Authority (such as court rulings published via court.gov.il) or corroborated reporting by major news organizations (e.g., The Times of Israel, Haaretz, Reuters).

Background

Benjamin Netanyahu's criminal trial began in May 2020 at the Jerusalem District Court following an indictment filed by then-Attorney General Avichai Mandelblit in late 2019. The trial consolidates three separate investigations:

• Case 1000 ("Gifts Affair"): Allegations that Netanyahu and his family accepted luxury goods (such as cigars and champagne) worth hundreds of thousands of shekels from wealthy benefactors, including Arnon Milchan and James Packer, in exchange for official assistance. Charges: Fraud and breach of trust.

• Case 2000 ("Yedioth Ahronoth Affair"): Allegations that Netanyahu negotiated with publisher Arnon Mozes to weaken the distribution of rival newspaper Israel Hayom in exchange for favorable coverage. Charges: Fraud and breach of trust.

• Case 4000 ("Bezeq-Walla Affair"): The centerpiece and most severe case, alleging that Netanyahu granted regulatory favors benefiting telecommunications company Bezeq in exchange for positive media coverage on its subsidiary news outlet Walla. Charges: Bribery, fraud, and breach of trust.

Netanyahu has consistently denied all allegations, labeling the prosecution an orchestrated political campaign.