I have invested thirty dollars US into making this market and boosting it with one question in mind- can Manifold exceed to cost-per-free subscription ratio of websites like Reddit, Twitter and Facebook in getting subscribers for my Substack? The Substack is here: https://philosophybear.substack.com/

There are quite a few moving parts here. You might subscribe, or not subscribe so, as part of a strategy to resolve the market in your favour. You might even try to encourage others to subscribe or not subscribe. You might resent this blatant attempt to advertise using Manifold, or you might be intrigued by a Substack written by someone who wanted to try this strategy

Caveat emptor. Without a conversion tracking pixel, I will only be able to estimate the number of subscriptions that came from this market. I have access to a lot of data which makes this much more than a stab in the dark, and I will try my very hardest to give a good faith estimate of how many additional subscribers I got, but there is uncertainty. I will not bet in this market for obvious reasons.

A bit about me and my Substack. I have a PhD in Philosophy & Political Economy and I deal with these subjects primarily. Special interests include politics, political philosophy, AI, the philosophy of AI, and cultural criticism. Philosophy Bear is, to my knowledge, the only source of Bearish Philosophy on the internet.