Resolves to yes if the page is created before Dec 31. I'll resolve the market early if the page is created earlier, but it has to stay up for at least one week without being taken down by moderators.
Rules:
Please don't create the page yourself in order to manipulate the market, and in particular please don't vandalize Wikipedia. If someone does this, I will resolve N/A.
If you were really honestly already going to create the page before even seeing this market, then insider trading on that knowledge is fine.
I will not trade on the market, and I certainly won't create a UDT page.
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@SirCryptomind Thanks for resolving. Was in an area where I had internet but no cell service and Google wanted to send a verification code to let me log in.
@Phi No problem, just standard NY Resolution cleanups. Appreciate you not getting upset about it. Hope you enjoyed your Holidays.
Is UDT different from FDT? Because it already seems to have a page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Functional_Decision_Theory
@Tassilo ok According to the lw Tag they are technically different.
UDT is very similar to Functional Decision Theory (FDT), but there are differences. FDT doesn't include the UDT1.1 fix and Nate Soares states: "Wei Dai doesn't endorse FDT's focus on causal-graph-style counterpossible reasoning; IIRC he's holding out for an approach to counterpossible reasoning that falls out of evidential-style conditioning on a logically uncertain distribution". Rob Bensinger says that he's heard UDT described as "FDT + a theory of anthropics".
Seems barely worth it's own page.
