Manifold Markets has emerged as an interesting and exciting test bed for self-resolving markets. The idea of a self-resolving market is that (a) you don't have clear and unambiguous resolution criteria but (b) you don't want to leave resolution to the subjective judgement of a few individuals. Instead, it would be helpful to consult the wisdom of the market.

One attempt to resolve to market price lead to a large tug-of-war that had nothing to do with the spirit of the question and ended up resolving N/A.

An attempt to resolve to market price probabilistically did not result in the intended outcome.

Another attempt to add more guardrails also lead to a large tug-of-war that had nothing to do with the spirit of the question and ended up resolving N/A. Though this one of combining quiescence with probabilistic market price seems to have sorta worked.

A different genre has been resolving based on polls instead of market price. Two attempts at resolving via polls seem to have worked -- see here and here. There also was whatever this was.

The polling mechanism seems to work well because even if we don't have clear resolution criteria, I expect people at time of resolution will still know the answer. In the words of Justice Potter Stewart, even if you can't clearly articulate the criteria: "I know it when I see it".

In this market, I propose seeing if we can get true results by resolving the market to the results of a Twitter poll instead of a poll conducted on Manifold. I think this would be more scalable, since Twitter poll results can be acquired quickly, as well as more likely to be accurate given that many participants will have no desire to manipulate the market given they have nothing to gain from doing so and given that there will be many more responses.

On March 1st, the market will close, and then soon after I will run a Twitter poll on my own account written as follows: "Is Joe Biden the President of the United States?" with two options "Yes" and "No". This poll will run for 24 hours.

I will also add the following context in a follow up comment: "I am using this Twitter poll to test the ability to resolve a Manifold market accurately without needing to write clear market criteria."

Given that I have over 5800 Twitter followers at the time of writing, the hope is that this Twitter poll would be too hard to manipulate for profit.

This market resolves to whatever a majority of voters pick in the Twitter poll, regardless of real-life outcome.

If this gets too hard, you can always appeal to superintelligence. Though. your market might not close for a long time.