Resolves once we have a definitive answer to the question.
Update 2025-04-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Additional Resolution Conditions:
The market will resolve only when a definitive answer is reached, meaning a stable consensus on who was president in 2020 is established.
Resolution is expected to occur only after 2020 no longer remains a subject of active political contention.
This includes a period when pressures that might encourage the distortion or hiding of evidence have subsided.
Update 2025-04-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Definitive Answer Clarification:
The market will resolve when a definitive answer is reached, which means the creator has reviewed all notable evidence from both sides.
The resolution requires that the creator has at least 98% confidence in a particular answer being correct.
If more than one answer qualifies as correct under this criterion, the market will resolve by awarding all correct answers equally.
Update 2025-04-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Jeopardy Rules Update
The market will now be resolved following Jeopardy rules.
This update replaces the previous detailed resolution criteria with a mechanism that adheres to the Jeopardy format.
Update 2025-04-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Criteria Update:
The market will now be resolved according to postmodern theory.
Update 2025-04-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution using Postmodern Criteria:
Foundation: Resolution will be determined based on postmodern theory, which views truth as socially constructed and relative to cultural and individual perspectives.
Implications: The market’s outcome will reflect the understanding that there is no singular, objective truth, but rather a fluid interpretation of evidence.
Update 2025-04-25 (PST): - All answers resolved equally: under the postmodern framework, because no objective truth exists, every answer will be treated as correct and receive equal resolution. (AI summary of creator comment)
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ1,876 | |
| 2 | Ṁ522 | |
| 3 | Ṁ150 | |
| 4 | Ṁ116 | |
| 5 | Ṁ113 |
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I think I paid off anyone that lost more than 100 mana here. Hit me up if I missed you, or if you're poor and need 20 mana back or whatever. And trade better next time.
@PeterMillerc030 under postmodern theory there's no objective truth as to whether I lost more than 100 mana here. so can you send me some mana
@121 According to postmodern theory, truth is not fixed or universal, but rather socially constructed and relative to individual perspectives and cultural contexts. Postmodernism also challenges the idea of objective knowledge and emphasizes the subjective nature of experience and interpretation.
@snazzlePop Because there is no objective truth, I think the only fair postmodernist option is to resolve all answers equally.
@ChristopherRandles it's simple, we use rootclaim's methodology and resolve it now. I just ran it myself and it gave the answer a 99.9993% probability of being true. This likelihood estimate is robust even if it's a few orders of magnitude off.
Given that the simulation hypothesis is 99.9% likely to be true (simple math tbh), this market must resolve YES to "a stimulated version of Donald Trump".
@EdisonYi Prediction markets are the best way to evaluate truth, so I think it's important to defer to market odds on this question:
@PeterMillerc030 what do you consider to be the probability of skeptical scenarios like brain-in-vat or evil demon deceiving you?
Wait, the US here could refer to a number of things, do we know that it refers to a particular country? Maybe it refers to Among Us?
Also, the relevant date is 2020 according to which calendar? Plausible options include 2020 BC, traditional Mayan calender, etc.
@EdisonYi "was" could also be vase misspelled so maybe they meant a gardener. Or they could have meant war, in which case we would have to check who the us was at war with at the time
@remedyrain Nah neither vase nor war would make grammatical sense here methinks
@TheAllMemeingEye It might not make GRAMMATICAL sense here but there is a still nonzero chance that op is a 3 year old who doesn't know how write a sentence xD