Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel?
15
Ṁ500Ṁ3.4k2031
28%
chance
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ALL
Resolves yes if Iran builds a nuclear bomb and then nukes Israel.
Both a nuclear first strike and a response to Israeli nuclear weapons use count as yes.
Resolves N/A if Iran does not develop a nuclear weapon.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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