13% on any one idea is way too high, just on priors. He's got a lot of people pushing and pulling him in lots of directions, even if he was a big fan of "dath ilan" at one point

The really funny part will be when he, as usual, neglects to spend literally 30 seconds thinking about whether Big Yud's shining virtuous equilibrium is one we have an obvious profiting-path to.

Does making a Tesla trailer count?

@SranPandurevic No, because that is not his "next startup;" this is a new product from an existing company of his.

@PeterBerggren right, it's in the title :) Interesting that the probability is so high!

@SranPandurevic Might just be for the lulz, but it might not...

Though this does not necessarily imply the "Elon Musk is reading Yudkowsky for his deep tech startup advice:" it could just be that movable housing is a particularly good startup idea.