Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?
Will Elon Musk's next startup involve any technology mentioned in Eliezer Yudkowsky's major "dath ilan" posts that is more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth?
17
1kṀ593
2030
23%
chance
This is a continuation of my earlier question: I speculate that Elon Musk is drawing ideas from the work of Eliezer Yudkowsky, and that at least two of his ideas (self-driving functionality for electric cars and underground tunnel-boring) could have been inspired by the "dath ilan" series of posts. This market resolves "YES" if Elon Musk's next startup will "involve" (meaning that this technology is mentioned in an official statement by the startup within two months of founding) any technology mentioned in the major "dath ilan" posts and considered to be "more completely deployed" on dath ilan than on Earth. The "major 'dath ilan' posts" refer to Yudkowsky's April Fool's Day confession on his Tumblr, the LessWrong summary of his Reddit AMA, or his post "Moloch's Toolbox," and any other post authored at least in part by Eliezer Yudkowsky involving dath ilan which has been mentioned in the comments and decided upon by me for inclusion, at my own discretion. "More completely deployed" refers to technologies which are more widely available on dath ilan (as described by Yudkowsky's posts) than on Earth, regardless of how available they are on Earth (e.g. artificial intelligence would not count, but bouncy paving material would). This includes technologies which are fundamentally social in impact (such as online classes and assurance contract websites), so long as they are technologies and so long as they are more available on dath ilan than Earth. Jun 2, 3:48pm: Technologies definitely counted as "more completely deployed on dath ilan than on Earth" include: Cryonics Prediction markets Rationality training Tunnel boring Self-driving cars Electric cars Movable houses Charter cities Moving walkways Bouncy paving material Assurance contracts Laser insect zappers Nuclear power Online education Open-access publishing Employment skills assessment Medical outcome reporting Any other technology for which a convincing case is made will also be counted.
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predictedNO 2y
Haha I think prediction markets would qualify as "better on Dath Ilan", so if Elon wants to buy Manifold then maybe this market could resolve to Yes
2y
Would it be better to just list the technologies that would qualify here rather than the current criteria?
2y
Realized the arbitrage opportunity with my other market, discussing only movable housing. Sold.

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