China and Taiwan 2030 [Mega Market]
6
1.8kแน16732030
72%
Taiwan's ally count falls to 11
69%
China declares a blockade of boats entering Taiwan (any number)
67%
China destroys a Taiwanese boat with gunfire or explosives (not a water cannon)
62%
China controls Wuqiu
62%
China launches a missile that hits Taiwan (the island)
62%
China shoots down a Taiwanese plane
59%
Taiwan's ally count falls to 10
58%
China controls Kinmen
58%
China controls Matsu
58%
China controls Penghu
58%
100+ people are killed in the conflict
58%
1k+ people are killed in the conflict
58%
10k+ people are killed in the conflict
57%
China lands troops on Taiwan (the island)
52%
100k+ people are killed in the conflict
50%
Taiwan's ally count falls to 9
50%
Taiwan's ally count falls to 8
5%
China detonates a nuclear weapon
What will happen by Dec 31, 2030 at 23:59 in Taiwan?
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Related questions
Related questions
China occupying Taiwan - Multiple Choice Markets - By end of 2030
China occupying Taiwan - Multiple Choice Markets - By end of 2035
China occupying Taiwan - Multiple Choice Markets - By end of 2027
Will China invade Taiwan before 2030?
38% chance
Will China unify with Taiwan by the end of 2030?
17% chance
Will China invade Taiwan by 2035?
45% chance
Will China control Taiwan in 2040?
50% chance
Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan before 2030?
33% chance
[Metaculus] Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?
10% chance
Bridge built connecting PRC and Taiwan (2023 territory) through 2040
18% chance