Background

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics using established methodologies that survey household spending patterns and weight prices accordingly. The CPI is widely used by economists, policymakers, and financial analysts for economic analysis and policy decisions.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if during 2025:

• Multiple mainstream media outlets publish articles questioning the validity of CPI as an inflation measure, likely (but not necessarily for this question) due to real or alleged interference with the Bureau of Labor Statistics by the Trump administration.

• Multiple prominent economists or financial institutions publicly challenge the methodology or reliability of CPI

• Congressional hearings or government investigations are initiated regarding CPI's effectiveness

• The Bureau of Labor Statistics announces major methodological changes

• Donald Trump or a high-ranking administration official publicly questions the validity of the CPI or economic data derived from it (e.g., claiming that inflation statistics are inaccurate).

The market will resolve NO if there is no widespread questioning of CPI's validity during 2025. Routine academic discussions, minor methodological updates, or isolated criticism will not be considered "widespread questioning."

• Update 2025-08-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The bulleted list of conditions in the resolution criteria are to be interpreted as OR statements. The market will resolve YES if any one of the listed conditions is met.

• Update 2025-08-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on challenges to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) specifically, not the work of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in general.