Will the validity of the Consumer Price Index as a measure of inflation be widely questioned during 2025? #Economics

1kṀ4937

2026

67%

chance

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Background

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics using established methodologies that survey household spending patterns and weight prices accordingly. The CPI is widely used by economists, policymakers, and financial analysts for economic analysis and policy decisions.

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve YES if during 2025:

Multiple mainstream media outlets publish articles questioning the validity of CPI as an inflation measure, likely (but not necessarily for this question) due to real or alleged interference with the Bureau of Labor Statistics by the Trump administration.
Multiple prominent economists or financial institutions publicly challenge the methodology or reliability of CPI
Congressional hearings or government investigations are initiated regarding CPI's effectiveness
The Bureau of Labor Statistics announces major methodological changes
Donald Trump or a high-ranking administration official publicly questions the validity of the CPI or economic data derived from it (e.g., claiming that inflation statistics are inaccurate).

The market will resolve NO if there is no widespread questioning of CPI's validity during 2025. Routine academic discussions, minor methodological updates, or isolated criticism will not be considered "widespread questioning."

Update 2025-08-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The bulleted list of conditions in the resolution criteria are to be interpreted as OR statements. The market will resolve YES if any one of the listed conditions is met.

Update 2025-08-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on challenges to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) specifically, not the work of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in general.

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bought Ṁ100 YES

https://www.barrons.com/articles/bond-yields-cpi-true-measure-inflation-c9a8ef2f

Inflation is the derivative of CPI though, so clearly they are not the same thing.

@uair01 - I'm going to be a stickler that it must be the CPI specifically being challenged, not the work of the BLS in general.

@PaulSchleuse But criticisms of the BLS that are specific to its "work measuring inflation" or some other clear euphemism for the CPI does count?

@Panfilo - I intended these as OR statements, but I doubt we'd get just one of them in isolation.

bought Ṁ100 YES

Bullet 2 and 4 are already touched by this Tyler Cowen post:

https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/08/in-which-ways-is-the-bls-biased.html

But not enough for a YES resolution.

@PaulSchleuse Are your resolution criteria meant to be AND statements or OR statements?

I kinda feel like 2025 is going to be early for widespread total condemnation but it could happen by 2026?

The judgement call for 2025 feels like it could be tricky.

I don't think congressional hearings will happen during 2025 for example. Feels too soon.