Background

China's inflation rate has been notably low in recent years, with concerns about deflation emerging in late 2023. Major financial institutions have released forecasts for China's 2025 inflation rate:

• Goldman Sachs predicts 0.8% CPI inflation

• ING Think forecasts 0.9% CPI inflation

• UBS projects 0.1% CPI inflation

Resolution Criteria

This market will resolve based on China's official Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual inflation rate for the year 2025, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. The annual rate will be calculated as the average of the 12 monthly year-over-year CPI readings for 2025.

If China's statistical methodology changes significantly before or during 2025, the market will still resolve based on the official figures using whatever methodology is in place at the time.

Considerations

• China's official inflation statistics have occasionally been questioned by economists for their accuracy, but this market will resolve based on the official figures regardless of any such concerns

• The resolution will be based on the initial reported figures - any subsequent revisions will not affect the resolution

• If China stops publishing CPI data or switches to a fundamentally different measure of inflation, the market will resolve N/A