Will the Inflation Reduction Act be repealed in 2025?
Will the Inflation Reduction Act be repealed in 2025?
7
1kṀ29452026
30%
chance
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Resolves Yes if the majority of the allocated funds are repealed
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ChatGPT o1 says that ~60% of the benefits go to red areas. “Quantifying exactly how much of the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA) economic benefit will flow to “red” (Republican-leaning) versus “blue” (Democratic-leaning) areas is imprecise at this early stage. However, based on publicly announced manufacturing and energy-project investments—especially in battery and EV plants, solar manufacturing, and hydrogen/carbon-capture facilities—a reasonable estimate is that around 60% (give or take 5–10 percentage points) of the direct investment is going into Republican-voting states or counties.”
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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