Will the Weighted Outcome of the Two Largest Russia-Ukraine Invasion Predictions on Manifold Markets Currently Be Correct?
10
74
resolved Feb 26
Resolved
YES
***NOTE - this is a weighted index of the two other markets, so what we are betting on here is the ACCURACY of the other markets, not the actual outcome of the Russia-Ukraine Invasion.*** The two largest manifold markets on Russia-Ukraine short-term invasion are currently: A) Invade before end of February https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t B) Invade before end of Olympics https://manifold.markets/Predictor/will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t-871866813da9 This is an indexed bet based upon how accurate Manifold Markets will be, based upon a weighted average of these two largest markets. The formula for resolving the market is as follows: Volume: The volume of each market in $M. Volume Weight: (Volume)/(Total Volume) for each market. Prediction: The prediction percentage of each market. Weighted Prediction: (Prediction)*(Volume Weight) As of 16 Feb 2022 morning: Given today’s current volumes of A) ~40k $M and B) ~20k $M, Total Volume ~ 60k. This number changes as the volume changes. Current Volume Weights: A) ~0.67, B) ~0.33 Current Predictions: A) ~0.4 B) ~0.3 Therefore the Current Weighted Prediction is 0.37. Outcomes are defined as the actual outcome which happens in reality. The following table represents the Outcomes of the prediction accuracy: Russia Does Not Invade by Either Date This market resolves to, “YES” assuming the above conditions as the Weighted Prediction produced by Manifold Markets was less than 0.5, meaning its overall answer was, “NO” and this was accurate. Note, if for example case A) goes up significantly in volume and prediction level, its weight could drown out B) and this market could resolve to, “NO” meaning Manifold markets’ weighted accuracy was incorrect, even if B) was still correct. Russia Does Invade by End of February, But Not by End of Olympics Market resolves to, “NO” assuming above conditions as the Weighted Prediction produced by Manifold Markets was less than 0.5, meaning its overall answer was, “NO” but the Outcome was “YES” If either A) or B) goes up significantly in volume and prediction simultaneously, this could reverse this market’s outcome, as Manifold Market’s overall weighted accuracy would have reflected what occurs. Russia Invades by End of Olympics Market resolves to, “NO” assuming above conditions as the Weighted Prediction produced by Manifold Markets was less than 0.5, meaning its overall answer was, “NO” but the Outcome was “YES” If either A) or B) goes up significantly in volume and prediction simultaneously, this could reverse this market’s outcome, as Manifold Market’s overall weighted accuracy would have reflected what occurs. 4) Outcome Unclear / Weighted Prediction 0.5 exactly Market resolves to unknown / no outcome. Market Resolution: After Last Manifold Market Resolution. Feb 17, 10:18am: For anyone who visits. What's kind of interesting from my perspective having set up this index, and not having thought about this beforehand, is that it acts as a hedge if I were to bet with the consensus on Manifold. So basically, if I were to bet, "NO" on both of the Russia-Ukraine bets right now, I would be betting with the consensus, and if that were the outcome, I would win about $M 66 on a $M 100 bet, and loose $100 if the opposite outcome were true. However having put together this market, as of right now the payout that, "Manifold is NOT Accurate," would be $220 / $100 in the case of a win, meaning the net profit would be $20 if the true outcome were, "NO," and the net profit would be $66 if the true outcome were, "YES." Basically, setting up an accuracy hedge against other large bets and then betting on those bets may be a, "hack" to win no matter what. Close date updated to 2022-02-21 8:05 pm Feb 21, 8:04pm: Closing trading now since both other markets are now closed. Will resolve when other markets and actual outcomes resolve. Close date updated to 2022-02-28 11:59 pm Feb 22, 5:51pm: Reopened trading since trading on Duncan's market reopened. Close date updated to 2022-02-23 7:19 am Feb 23, 7:23am: I want to calculate the exact amount and think through and read why the other markets were resolved, and am busy today, I will resolve it as soon as possible. Feb 26, 8:10am: The weighted outcome per the formulas described above was 0.557 ... Analysis: '“YES” Wins because Manifold Markets, using a weighting of the two largest markets, was accurate in predicting that Russia would invade Ukraine by the end of February, weighted by how much participants voted for that option. In other words, far more people participated in the, "end of February," market, and then that market ended up making a correct prediction that there would be an invasion by the end of February. If the volume for, "End of the Olympics," had overwhelmingly be been higher, perhaps 300,000, this would have pushed the weighted answer to, "NO" because Manifold participants would have felt so mathematically confident about Russia not invading Ukraine not within the general timeframe. Note that the weighted percentage being 0.55 means that in retrospect, Manifold participants were really close to 50/50 on whether Russia would actually invade Ukraine, and the high accuracy could arguably be more of a result of what might be termed, "overtraining," or "gaming the system," essentially waiting until the last minute and changing one's bets, which is not really prediction at all, but rather description of an event that is actually occurring. ... Feb 26, 11:19am: Therefore, having indexes of bets may be a more accurate way to, in retrospect, describe the collective thinking of a particular set of markets, because there is less incentive to game multiple averaged timeframes focused on the same event toward a conclusion. This may also demonstrate that paying attention to a weighted average of multiple predictions may be a less risky way of predicting an actual outcome (though the outcome will be less specific in timeframe) than paying attention to one particular market. Of course, hindsight is 20-20, and it's likely that the calculated weighted average will not be predictive, but rather also descriptive.
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This is an awesome idea! Eventually we might want to officially support this use case (allowing people to combine sets of similar markets and predict on a single outcome); curious to see what the trader behavior will be for this one.