Resolution criteria

On 31 January 2026, I will create a Manifold poll titled "On balance, have Ukraine's strikes on Russian energy infrastructure succeeded or backfired?" The options will be 'Succeeded', 'Backfired', 'Neither succeeded nor backfired' and 'Too early to tell'. The poll will be open for seven days.

If the poll reaches a quorum of 20 participants and 'Succeeded' receives more than half of all votes, this market will resolve 'Succeeded'.

If the poll reaches a quorum of 20 participants and 'Backfired' receives more than half of all votes, this market will resolve 'Backfired'.

If the poll reaches a quorum of 20 participants and 'Neither succeeded nor backfired' receives more than half of all votes, this market will resolve 50% to 'Succeeded' and 50% to 'Backfired'.

If none of these criteria are satisfied in the January poll, I will repeat the poll on 31 March 2026 without the 'Too early to tell' option. The resolution criteria will remain the same, but if none of the criteria are satisfied for a second time, the market will resolve 50% to 'Succeeded' and 50% to 'Backfired'.

Clarifications

Trading will resume in February if the January poll fails to yield a result.

If a person uses alt accounts to cast more than one vote in the poll, only the first vote cast by that person will be counted. The subsequent votes will be completely disregarded.

What constitutes success or a backfire will be open to the interpretation of voters. I will not include any information in the description of the poll that might prejudice voters.

I will not trade in this market, but I may vote in the poll.