Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?
287
100Ṁ200kresolved Feb 23
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
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Will Russian military have a presence within the Ukraine before March 1st, 2202? #Russia #Ukraine #shortterm
Jan 15, 7:25am: #RussiaUkraine
Close date updated to 2022-02-21 5:42 pm
Close date updated to 2022-02-28 12:00 pm
Feb 22, 6:02pm: This will resolve YES if at least two major news sources state clearly that Russian tanks or troops have physically entered the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, or any other part of the Ukraine exclusive of the Crimea. News reports that random politician X said Y will be largely disregarded, although major players (e.g., Biden, Putin, Zelensky) will be taken to be knowledgeable if motivated parties.
It should be noted that the separatists may have tanks of their own, and the Ukraine certainly does. The presence of tanks on the ground is weak evidence of invasion.
Feb 22, 7:54pm: The WSJ, the NYT, and the Washington Post are reporting Russian troop movements into Ukrainian territory. European news agencies are being more conservative, but various government officials in the UK and Poland have stated that Russian troops have entered the Ukraine. The market criteria has been met: I am resolving this to YES.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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