Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?

Wars•World•Ukraine-Russia war•Global Macro•Ukraine•Russia

287

507

Ṁ200K

resolved Feb 23

Resolved

YES

ALL

Will Russian military have a presence within the Ukraine before March 1st, 2202? #Russia #Ukraine #shortterm Jan 15, 7:25am: #RussiaUkraine Close date updated to 2022-02-21 5:42 pm Close date updated to 2022-02-28 12:00 pm Feb 22, 6:02pm: This will resolve YES if at least two major news sources state clearly that Russian tanks or troops have physically entered the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, or any other part of the Ukraine exclusive of the Crimea. News reports that random politician X said Y will be largely disregarded, although major players (e.g., Biden, Putin, Zelensky) will be taken to be knowledgeable if motivated parties. It should be noted that the separatists may have tanks of their own, and the Ukraine certainly does. The presence of tanks on the ground is weak evidence of invasion. Feb 22, 7:54pm: The WSJ, the NYT, and the Washington Post are reporting Russian troop movements into Ukrainian territory. European news agencies are being more conservative, but various government officials in the UK and Poland have stated that Russian troops have entered the Ukraine. The market criteria has been met: I am resolving this to YES.

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25 Comments

839 Trades

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bought Ṁ200 of YES

GET IN THERE

bought Ṁ1 of YES

The market description has been updated to be more specific.

bought Ṁ1 of YES

Market closed; presumed to resolve yes, but pending confirmation.

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Russia's peacekeeping mission has sent russian military into Ukraine

bought Ṁ1 of YES

NYT reporting Moscow has ordered (regular) troops to Donetsk and Luhansk.

bought Ṁ1 of NO

I bet Putin has a big stake in No and is holding out for March

bought Ṁ400 of YES

The bull case for invasion: https://akarlin.substack.com/p/regathering-of-the-russian-lands

bought Ṁ1 of YES

(The context is that Russia is about to recognize the breakaway regions in Donbas as sovereign territories: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/21/world/ukraine-russia-putin-biden#russia-will-recognize-two-regions-in-ukraine-a-possible-prelude-to-invasion)

bought Ṁ1 of YES

From Russia's perspective, Ukraine is essentially illegally occupying the territory of other sovereign states now. This seems like a big deal, so my credence of an invasion by March is closer to about 55% than 39%.

bought Ṁ378 of YES

Putin basically confirming war.

bought Ṁ116 of YES

At this point it's obvious there will be open warfare, the only question is whether it'll start within the month but 37% is way too low.

bought Ṁ500 of NO

Russia has no incentives for a war in Ukraine.

bought Ṁ1 of NO

@RavenKopelman Yes, *everyone* knows it's obviously wrong. The problem is that some people know it's obviously too low and others know it's obviously too high. :D

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Crazy volume on this market and yet the odds seem so wrong... but what would the benefit of manipulating this market be?

bought Ṁ170 of YES

Arbitrage opportunity with https://manifold.markets/Duncan/what-day-will-russia-invade-ukraine

bought Ṁ10 of YES

I created a market which attempts to avoid the dynamic parimutuel cost function problem for the month of March tailing off of this market, but you have to enter it before the end of February Ukrainian time to participate. https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/will-russia-invade-ukraine-in-march

bought Ṁ250 of YES

Ukrainian officials allegedly coming under fire, more Western heads of state doubling down on "Putin has decided to invade" rhetoric, and increased Russian expectation of escalating conflict seems to point in a certain direction.

bought Ṁ1 of YES

Unfortunately, my balance is now positive. In his latest news conference, Biden said on Putin: "As of this moment, I am conviced he has made the decision [to invade]. I have every reason to believe it." https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1494794858753576963

bought Ṁ1 of YES

@MattPrice, that's what they call buying insurance.

sold Ṁ19 of YES

I still think this is quite likely, but betting even fake money on an outcome I fervently hope does not come to pass is getting too ghoulish for me. Instead going to pray for peace while expecting war.

bought Ṁ1 of YES

A good blog post collecting a lot of information: https://spiegelmock.com/2022/02/17/whats-really-going-on-the-ukrainian-border/

bought Ṁ200 of YES

I don't get how this is so low. Everything appears logistically ready, US and UK both saying unequivocally they think Putin has decided to do it, worst day of shelling at the border since 2018, lots of Russian talk about Ukrainian genocide. It could all be a fakeout, but surely the chance has to be higher than even?

bought Ṁ5 of NO

Market movement depends on which purveyor of manufactured news you believe. 🤣

bought Ṁ50 of YES

Surprised markets haven't reacted to the news of continued Russian moves, tbqh

bought Ṁ40 of YES

There are reports of shelling and global stock markets seem to have reacted to this news. These events seem like they should have adjusted the implied probability upward at least a bit on Manifold.