resolved Feb 23

Will Russia invade Ukraine before the end of February?

Resolved

YES

ALL

Will Russian military have a presence within the Ukraine before March 1st, 2202? #Russia #Ukraine #shortterm Jan 15, 7:25am: #RussiaUkraine Close date updated to 2022-02-21 5:42 pm Close date updated to 2022-02-28 12:00 pm Feb 22, 6:02pm: This will resolve YES if at least two major news sources state clearly that Russian tanks or troops have physically entered the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, or any other part of the Ukraine exclusive of the Crimea. News reports that random politician X said Y will be largely disregarded, although major players (e.g., Biden, Putin, Zelensky) will be taken to be knowledgeable if motivated parties. It should be noted that the separatists may have tanks of their own, and the Ukraine certainly does. The presence of tanks on the ground is weak evidence of invasion. Feb 22, 7:54pm: The WSJ, the NYT, and the Washington Post are reporting Russian troop movements into Ukrainian territory. European news agencies are being more conservative, but various government officials in the UK and Poland have stated that Russian troops have entered the Ukraine. The market criteria has been met: I am resolving this to YES.

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1	John Beshir	Ṁ11,770
2	Matthew Barnett	Ṁ6,476
3	Natália 🔍	Ṁ1,507
4	Kevin Zielnicki	Ṁ1,374
5	Tоm	Ṁ1,315

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Giovannibought Ṁ200 of YESGET IN THERE

Duncnbought Ṁ1 of YESThe market description has been updated to be more specific.

Duncnbought Ṁ1 of YESMarket closed; presumed to resolve yes, but pending confirmation.

Garrett Bakerbought Ṁ50 of YESRussia's peacekeeping mission has sent russian military into Ukraine

Chan Baebought Ṁ1 of YESNYT reporting Moscow has ordered (regular) troops to Donetsk and Luhansk.

Sam Casavantbought Ṁ1 of NOI bet Putin has a big stake in No and is holding out for March

S Gbought Ṁ400 of YESThe bull case for invasion: https://akarlin.substack.com/p/regathering-of-the-russian-lands

Natália 🔍bought Ṁ1 of YES(The context is that Russia is about to recognize the breakaway regions in Donbas as sovereign territories: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/21/world/ukraine-russia-putin-biden#russia-will-recognize-two-regions-in-ukraine-a-possible-prelude-to-invasion)

Natália 🔍bought Ṁ1 of YESFrom Russia's perspective, Ukraine is essentially illegally occupying the territory of other sovereign states now. This seems like a big deal, so my credence of an invasion by March is closer to about 55% than 39%.

Chan Baebought Ṁ378 of YESPutin basically confirming war.

Chan Baebought Ṁ116 of YESAt this point it's obvious there will be open warfare, the only question is whether it'll start within the month but 37% is way too low.

Zhao Nanbought Ṁ500 of NORussia has no incentives for a war in Ukraine.

Yevbought Ṁ1 of NO@RavenKopelman Yes, *everyone* knows it's obviously wrong. The problem is that some people know it's obviously too low and others know it's obviously too high. :D

Raven Kopelmanbought Ṁ100 of YESCrazy volume on this market and yet the odds seem so wrong... but what would the benefit of manipulating this market be?

Yevbought Ṁ170 of YESArbitrage opportunity with https://manifold.markets/Duncan/what-day-will-russia-invade-ukraine

Patrick Delaneybought Ṁ10 of YESI created a market which attempts to avoid the dynamic parimutuel cost function problem for the month of March tailing off of this market, but you have to enter it before the end of February Ukrainian time to participate. https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/will-russia-invade-ukraine-in-march

Matthewbought Ṁ250 of YESUkrainian officials allegedly coming under fire, more Western heads of state doubling down on "Putin has decided to invade" rhetoric, and increased Russian expectation of escalating conflict seems to point in a certain direction.

marthinwurerbought Ṁ1 of YESUnfortunately, my balance is now positive. In his latest news conference, Biden said on Putin: "As of this moment, I am conviced he has made the decision [to invade]. I have every reason to believe it." https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1494794858753576963

Gurkenglasbought Ṁ1 of YES@MattPrice, that's what they call buying insurance.

Matt Psold Ṁ19 of YESI still think this is quite likely, but betting even fake money on an outcome I fervently hope does not come to pass is getting too ghoulish for me. Instead going to pray for peace while expecting war.

marthinwurerbought Ṁ1 of YESA good blog post collecting a lot of information: https://spiegelmock.com/2022/02/17/whats-really-going-on-the-ukrainian-border/

PeterBorahbought Ṁ200 of YESI don't get how this is so low. Everything appears logistically ready, US and UK both saying unequivocally they think Putin has decided to do it, worst day of shelling at the border since 2018, lots of Russian talk about Ukrainian genocide. It could all be a fakeout, but surely the chance has to be higher than even?

Donal Huntbought Ṁ5 of NOMarket movement depends on which purveyor of manufactured news you believe. 🤣

UMP-21bought Ṁ50 of YESSurprised markets haven't reacted to the news of continued Russian moves, tbqh

Patrick Delaneybought Ṁ40 of YESThere are reports of shelling and global stock markets seem to have reacted to this news. These events seem like they should have adjusted the implied probability upward at least a bit on Manifold.

Patrick Delaneybought Ṁ5 of YESI created a weighted Index fund for this and the other largest volume Market on Manifold currently: https://manifold.markets/PatrickDelaney/will-the-weighted-outcome-of-the-tw

marthinwurerbought Ṁ100 of YESCBS news saying they're deploying too: https://mobile.twitter.com/cbswalsh/status/1493688067361849349?s=21

marthinwurerbought Ṁ100 of YESPutting more of my fake money where my mouth is. Pulled this out of various other markets.

marthinwurerbought Ṁ10 of YESI'm very surprised to see the probability lower than 80%. There continue to be reports of more forces deploying to the border. These aren't predeployed assets sitting in lots waiting for troops to arrive like they were last month. The troops have arrived, and we're seeing armored columns approaching to within 10 miles of the border, as well as aviation assets being forward deployed to previously abandoned bases. These are deployments that can't last forever, and the time is ticking down. Putin has achieved zero of his goals diplomatically, so he has one choice left: invasion. This is corroborated by the decisions of NATO members to evacuate their citizens immediately from Ukraine. https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1493752421381771264 https://mobile.twitter.com/YWNReporter/status/1493701074921922562

Kenan Farmerbought Ṁ200 of YEShttps://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10503627/Foreign-Office-tells-Britons-Ukraine-commercial-means-available.html

Jamesbought Ṁ1 of NO"White House Warns Russian Invasion of Ukraine Could Happen at Any Time" https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/11/world/europe/ukraine-russia-diplomacy.html

manifoldaccountbought Ṁ500 of NOYeah Metaculus is 50-50 on EOY. I have to make some big bets here. Must be less than half by end of February.

Duncnbought Ṁ1 of YESI was originally thinking in terms of overt military presence, not saboteurs. I'm not sure what to do if saboteurs become overt. If things get contentious, I'll seriously consider opening another market to help define terms.