Using the Selenographic Coordinate System, Will the Chang'e 5-T1 booster Hit the Moon at +5.18, east longitude 233.55 on March 5th, Approximately 12:25 Universal Time, Within

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From This Story: https://www.npr.org/2022/02/15/1080827033/space-junk-piece-set-to-hit-the-moon-likely-from-a-chinese-rocket-not-spacex?live=1 Independent Astronomical Software Supplier and Astronomer, "Project Pluto," has forecasted as of 16 Feb 2022 that there is an object, originally identified as a SpaceX rocket and now identified as the Chang'e 5-T1 Booster, will hit the Moon at latitude +5.18, east longitude 233.55, using the Selenographic Coordinate System, plus or minus a few seconds or kilometers. * This bet is not about the exact time of the impact, but about the location of the impact within a range of precision of the impact at or around the day in question. If for whatever reason the object misses the moon completely, the bet will resolve to NO. * This bet is not a bout what exactly the object is, but again, the range of precision of impact. The bet is not dependent upon what exactly this object is, but it is agreed that we are all thinking of the same object currently defined as the Chang'e 5-T1 Booster. * Universal Time will be accepted to mean UTC (see below). "YES" outcome will mean that the object did indeed hit the circle defined within or on the projected Coordinates, "plus or minus a few seconds," with "a few" being defined as, "within 4 seconds." "NO" outcome will mean that the object did not hit within (e.g. greater than the radius of) the circle defined within the projected Coordinates, it fell outside of that circle, or missed the moon completely on that day. From the discoverer of the object's trajectory in question: https://www.projectpluto.com/temp/dscovr.htm#confidence "...2022 March 4 12:25:58 Universal Time, at latitude +5.18, east longitude 233.55, plus or minus a few seconds and a few kilometers" The resolution of this bet will be determined by either Project Pluto, if they have sufficient resources to actually confirm their projection, which is not known at the time of authoring this bet, or by NASA JPL or better third party authority which is able to observe and confirm the exact Selenographic Coordinates of the Impact. Other References: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Selenographic_coordinate_system https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_Time Feb 16, 6:26am: Edit: I saved the market without being able to revise the title, leaving it at, "Within..." rather than, "within 4 seconds of precision," but the description overall should be sufficient to understand what the bet is about. Mar 5, 6:45am: Recent comments: https://www.projectpluto.com/temp/dscovr.htm#confirm Mar 5, 6:45am: https://www.fcc.gov/media/radio/dms-decimal --- converting decimal to min/sec, the equivalent center spot we're looking at appears to be Lat 5° 10' 47.9994" Lon -53° 32' 59.9994" Mar 5, 6:50am: Adding or subtracting a second in the Lat direction would convert back to: 5.181111 or 5.178889 and in the Lon Direction to: or 53.551111 or 53.548889 Mar 5, 6:58am: Using this Lunar Distance Calculator - https://www.lpi.usra.edu/lunar/tools/lunardistancecalc/ going from +5.18, -53.55 to +5.181111, -53.55 would be 0.03368924235883317 km ... (not rounding appropriately here, I know) ... but basically the recent comment that the object was, "+/- a few km" would not be equivalent to, "a few seconds," in other words...a few seconds, meaning precisely 4 seconds, would be roughly a hundred times more precise than a few kilometers, meaning 4 kilometers at this coordinate on the moon. That being said, the original bet said, "OR kilometers" ... so if the object does indeed impact within that km range, I'm still going to resolve it yes.

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Patrick Delaney

Using the lunar distance calculator:

https://www.lpi.usra.edu/lunar/tools/lunardistancecalc/

The predicted center point was at latitude +5.18, east longitude 233.55, or -53.55
The resultant center point of the impact crater was at 5.226° N, 234.486° E or -54.486
The resultant calculation for the distance between these two points is 28.300102847565924 km
Presumably, this does not take into account elevation, but rather presumes a curved surface (e.g. as the moon crow flies). Elevation would make the distance longer if elevation were taken into account, presumably.
Therefore, being that the actual impact was outside of the original radius of of 4km by over 7 times!
This of course means that the market must resolve to, "no" as the Chang'e 5-T1 booster did not hit within the predicted sphere.

Patrick Delaney

http://lroc.sese.asu.edu/posts/1261

The rocket body crater formed in a complex area (arrow, 5.226° N, 234.486° E, 1863 meters elevation

I need to calculate the number of kilometers away from the originally projected site to see whether it was within 4 km..

Patrick Delaney

Evidently the impact crater site has been found. I need to do more reading to understand exactly where it hit. https://www.projectpluto.com/temp/imaged.htm

Patrick Delaney So...the impact site has not been officially released yet, but photographic evidence may have already been collected, just not posted online. I will check back on the article within the comment below.

Patrick Delaney Checking back in on this. The author of the original article has pointed over to this article, with the actual impact site being covered under, "What Now?" https://www.agi.com/blog/2022/02/space-debris-cleanup-hack-using-the-gravity-of-the