Testing Embedding Google Form as Poll in Manifold Market - Will The Majority of Participants Select, "YES" or "NO?"
Testing Embedding Google Form as Poll in Manifold Market - Will The Majority of Participants Select, "YES" or "NO?"
2
90Ṁ10resolved Apr 4
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This Market tests the results of a poll embedded as a Google Form.
Emails are not collected.
Sign in is required to attempt to limit the number of responses to 1 per user (or at least make it more labor intensive to game the poll).
Answers can be changed after the fact, you can go back to the Google form and change your answer if you change your mind.
This market will resolve to the results of the poll below. If the majority of people who take the poll vote, "YES," then the market will resolve as, "YES," otherwise NO.
A 50/50 poll result will go to N/A.
Link to Poll:
Results:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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I suggest to use a poll like this: https://manifold.markets/jack/poll-is-donating-mana-important-to#IO9faiIylLamfop2ivAg
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Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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