So how exactly does this work? If I short this and he doesn't get diamond, do I gain back tokens in the long run? Or is this purely based on the speculation of other people? Because I am very confident that he does not attain diamond again, but if the market is hopiuming that would mean I get nothing right?

Tiny was diamond 1 in the past (when the game was much different) and has been diamond a few times since then. Considering this doesn't resolve no it may be a pretty safe bet if you don't mind funds being tied up. At the very least you might make a tiny bit selling when he inevitably gets to plat 2-1 again.

@Brooke With loans, any money invested comes back to you after about six months, so there’s no cost difference between investing in a market that ends in six months and a permanent market.

@Gabrielle Yes, although for newer users without much to invest you can make mana much more quickly with investments in markets that resolve soon if you are confident.

I updated the Title. I might also make it a requirement that destiny has to stay in diamond after a couple of games or something. to make the stock a bit more spicy and fun. But if people don't like that idea lmk. As of right now, it will resolve as "Yes" if he does ever make it.

@Pasteldallas How is the market "(Permanent)" if it can resolve?

@a Its going to take a very long time.