https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/09/civilian-toll-israeli-airstrikes-gaza-unprecedented-killing-study (via Haaretz)

This market will resolve based on future analysis from the Open University of Israel, augmented by other sources only if necessary. As noted in the article, the wars of the 20th century had an average civilian death rate of about 50%. Thus far, the bombing campaign from the IDF has averaged 61% civilian deaths inflicted. This is despite enormous advances in technology for guiding ordnance and identifying military targets, and in a geographical and social environment familiar to the Israeli military.

• Update 2024-31-12 (PST): - Resolution extended through mid-2025. (AI summary of creator comment)

• Update 2025-05-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that the market's intention is to focus on the civilian death rate from Israeli airstrikes that occurred before the ground invasion.