Will Thailand and Cambodia enter into a hot war in 2025?
51
1kṀ12kJan 31
3%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/thailand-cambodia-border-dispute-07-24-25-intl-hnk
This market resolves Yes if, by the end of January 2026, the wikipedia entry for 2025 shows a conflict between Thailand and Cambodia as having surpassed 1000 deaths and entered into the Minor Wars category on this page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ongoing_armed_conflicts
Any entry that features both countries as beligerents and represents their current, active participation will count. Otherwise, this market will resolve No. The extra month is to allow time for wikipedia to be updated with late 2025 numbers. Feel free to ask clarifying questions in the comments.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will India and Bangladesh go to war by EOY 2026?
9% chance
Will there be another coup in Thailand by 2030?
52% chance
Will there be a new(ly) major war in 2026?
56% chance
Will there be a full-scale war between North Korea and South Korea by 2050?
22% chance
Will any of the following western countries go to war with each other before 2030?
8% chance
Will China fight a major land war by 2035?
30% chance
Will there be a war between the United States and China before 2035?
50% chance
Will there be a conflict over the South China Sea between two claimant states by the end of 2035?
70% chance
Will China declare war on another country by 2030?
20% chance