Will Israel conduct a retaliatory strike on Iranian military or nuclear facilities before the 1st of June?
Will Israel conduct a retaliatory strike on Iranian military or nuclear facilities before the 1st of June?
19
540Ṁ4871resolved Apr 19
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Intelligence communities are split on whether Israel will carry out any form of strike against Iran. The facilities in question are likely to be non-civilian targets, and would, if executed, target Iran's nuclear weapons program and/or other aspects of their military.
Definitions:
Retaliatory strike - Any strike by Israel on Iranian territory (strikes on Iranian proxy groups not included).
Nuclear facilities - Any facility speculated to be doing research on nuclear weapons or nuclear technology, even if it is non-military.
1st of June in the GMT time zone.
See similar question for May 1st:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ117 | |
| 2 | Ṁ73 | |
| 3 | Ṁ63 | |
| 4 | Ṁ45 | |
| 5 | Ṁ26 |
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
People are also trading
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.