Will Israel conduct a retaliatory strike on Iranian military or nuclear facilities before the 1st of May?
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resolved Apr 19
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YES

Intelligence communities are split on whether Israel will carry out any form of strike against Iran. The facilities in question are likely to be non-civilian targets, and would, if executed, target Iran's nuclear weapons program and other aspects of their military.

Definitions:
Retaliatory strike - Any strike by Israel on Iranian territory (strikes on Iranian proxy groups not included).

Nuclear facilities - Any facility speculated to be doing research on nuclear weapons or nuclear technology.
1st of May in the GMT time zone.

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can resolve yes. not nuclear but definitely military. the june 1 market resolved

sold Ṁ39 NO

For a day-by-day market covering the next retaliation in the conflict:

bought Ṁ25 NO

There is a military base near the airport, but I'm glad we're waiting to see if it was actually struck.

I’ve made a mildly edited duplicate for June 1st and linked back to this:

I predict a retaliation, but I would be pretty surprised if it was against a target that would be guaranteed to escalate the conflict so severely. There is a lot more will among Western leaders to apply real pressure to Israel to use restraint against Iran than against Gaza. The consequences of a strike like this would probably be war.

Article from today making some similar points:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/16/world/middleeast/israel-iran-allies.html

reposted

I'm predicting a yes, but we'll see. Personally, I think the recent attacks are a good justification for setting Iranian nuclear ambitions back a decade.

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