Will Israel conduct a retaliatory strike on Iranian military or nuclear facilities before the 1st of May?
resolved Apr 19

Intelligence communities are split on whether Israel will carry out any form of strike against Iran. The facilities in question are likely to be non-civilian targets, and would, if executed, target Iran's nuclear weapons program and other aspects of their military.

Retaliatory strike - Any strike by Israel on Iranian territory (strikes on Iranian proxy groups not included).

Nuclear facilities - Any facility speculated to be doing research on nuclear weapons or nuclear technology.
1st of May in the GMT time zone.

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can resolve yes. not nuclear but definitely military. the june 1 market resolved

sold Ṁ39 NO

For a day-by-day market covering the next retaliation in the conflict:

bought Ṁ25 NO

There is a military base near the airport, but I'm glad we're waiting to see if it was actually struck.

I’ve made a mildly edited duplicate for June 1st and linked back to this:

I predict a retaliation, but I would be pretty surprised if it was against a target that would be guaranteed to escalate the conflict so severely. There is a lot more will among Western leaders to apply real pressure to Israel to use restraint against Iran than against Gaza. The consequences of a strike like this would probably be war.

Article from today making some similar points:


I'm predicting a yes, but we'll see. Personally, I think the recent attacks are a good justification for setting Iranian nuclear ambitions back a decade.

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